In what appears to be a significant shift in Texas politics, Attorney General Ken Paxton has taken a commanding lead over four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the race for the Republican nomination. A new poll, sponsored by a Paxton-supporting super PAC, reveals a staggering 19-point lead for Paxton, shaking the foundations of Cornyn's longstanding political career.

The survey, executed by Pulse Research between June 17-22, sampled 806 GOP primary voters, showcasing Paxton's robust popularity among the base. The results indicate Paxton leading with 57% compared to Cornyn’s 38% in a direct matchup. This poll is not just a standalone anomaly but part of a continuing trend that sees Paxton increasingly favored by the party's right-wing faction.

National GOP leaders are increasingly anxious, not just about Cornyn's faltering primary campaign but also about Paxton's potential vulnerabilities in a general election. Despite his strong primary showing, Paxton's political career has been marred by legal troubles, including indictments and an impeachment process, raising concerns about his electability in November.

Interestingly, the poll also highlights a significant disparity in voter perception. Paxton's name recognition stands impressively high at 89%, surpassing Cornyn’s 84%. More so, Paxton enjoys a substantial net favorability ratio of 70 to 18 percent, dwarfing Cornyn’s 53 to 30 percent.

The poll further dissects voter loyalty, showing Paxton's stronghold over voters who identify as Trump Republicans, where he leads by 44 points. Conversely, Cornyn maintains a 15-point advantage among those who resonate more with Reagan-era conservatism.

Adding another layer to the primary dynamics is the potential candidacy of Rep. Wesley Hunt. However, the poll suggests that Hunt’s entry would likely have a minimal impact, as he would draw support evenly from both Paxton and Cornyn, positioning him far behind in a distant third.

As Texas gears up for its primary on March 3, 2026, the Republican field is witnessing an increasingly fraught battle. This race not only underlines the ideological divides within the party but also sets the stage for what could be one of the most pivotal and contentious primaries in recent Texas history. As the date approaches, all eyes will be on how these dynamics unfold, potentially reshaping the Lone Star State's political landscape.