In this fall’s key gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats are not just aiming to win but to secure decisive victories that could set the stage for next year’s critical midterm elections. Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and former Representative Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, both with backgrounds in national security, carry their party’s hopes of dispelling the shadows of past electoral setbacks.

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg emphasizes cautious optimism, noting the persistent challenge of competing against the media dominance of figures like Donald Trump. This concern underscores the broader Democratic strategy which hinges on leveraging these state races to regain momentum after disappointing results in the 2024 elections.

Polls suggest Sherrill and Spanberger are leading their Republican opponents, Jack Ciattarelli and Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, which bolsters party confidence especially in Virginia. However, maintaining control of the New Jersey governor’s mansion is perceived as a more formidable challenge.

To support their candidates, the Democratic Party has poured significant resources into these races, with notable investments of $1.5 million in each state and a substantial $20 million ad buy in New Jersey. These efforts reflect the strategic importance of these elections as Democrats attempt to counter Republican gains and the pervasive influence of Trump’s political brand.

The economy remains a central theme, with Democrats in both states criticizing Trump’s economic policies and their impact on living costs. They hope to win back disenfranchised Black and Hispanic voters by highlighting Trump’s unfulfilled promises and perceived economic mismanagement. Virginia’s race, in particular, focuses on the repercussions of federal workforce cuts under Trump, which have resonated deeply in the suburban areas around Washington, D.C.

Trump’s involvement—or lack thereof—could sway the races. In Virginia, Earle-Sears has not yet secured Trump’s endorsement, which some believe could help her gain ground, while in New Jersey, Ciattarelli has received a lukewarm reception to Trump’s endorsement among potential crossover voters.

Democrats are also looking to boost voter enthusiasm by leveraging high-profile figures within the party, with potential appearances by former President Barack Obama and Maryland Governor Wes Moore. These efforts aim to counteract the rallying effect Trump continues to have on Republican voters.

As the campaigns enter their final months, the ability of Democrats to mobilize their base and appeal to minority voters could be crucial. Both Sherrill and Spanberger are actively engaging with Black and Hispanic communities, crucial demographics that could determine the outcome of these tightly contested races.

With the elections fast approaching, the stakes are high for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia. These races not only serve as a litmus test for the national mood ahead of the 2024 midterms but also as potential springboards for Democratic resurgence or continued challenges ahead.