Republicans have touted the recently passed GOP megabill, along with President Donald Trump’s tariff and immigration policies, as catalysts for economic prosperity. However, a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggests that the reality might be less optimistic.

According to the CBO's latest economic forecasts, the combined impact of Trump’s policies and the Republican-led Congress's legislative actions are unlikely to significantly boost economic growth before the 2028 elections. Contrary to GOP claims, the CBO report released Friday indicates that the effects of stringent tariff measures and a strict immigration crackdown are expected to suppress the economy this year, overshadowing any potential gains from the tax and spending package enacted this summer.

As the 2028 presidential election approaches, the CBO anticipates a shift. Next year, the positive outcomes of the megabill are projected to start overcoming the negative repercussions of the current tariff and immigration policies, potentially leading to an uptick in GDP growth beyond previous expectations.

However, the long-term outlook remains mixed. By 2027 and 2028, the initial boost from the GOP megabill is predicted to diminish as the adverse effects of reduced immigration begin to weigh on the labor force, thereby restraining economic expansion. Meanwhile, higher tariffs are expected to somewhat counterbalance this decline by stimulating domestic production.

Ultimately, when voters go to the polls in November 2028, they will face an economy where the real GDP is projected to be only 0.1 percent higher than it was before Trump assumed office, largely nullifying the anticipated economic benefits of his administration's policies.

This nuanced forecast challenges the optimism of Republican leaders and suggests that the economic policies championed by Trump might not deliver the robust growth promised, leaving voters with much to consider as they cast their ballots.