For Senator John Cornyn of Texas, the GOP Senate primary is becoming a crowded but advantageous affair. Despite the recent announcement by Congressman Wesley Hunt to join the race, alongside Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Cornyn appears to be maintaining his lead. This dynamic is captured in a new poll conducted by Texans for a Conservative Majority, a pro-Cornyn super PAC.

The survey, conducted just before Hunt declared his candidacy, places Cornyn at the top with 33 percent of the support among Texas Republican primary voters. Paxton trails slightly with 28 percent, and Hunt begins his campaign with 21 percent. The remaining 18 percent of voters are still undecided.

Interestingly, Hunt's entry seems to be slicing into Paxton's base more than Cornyn's. When Hunt supporters were asked to choose between Cornyn and Paxton, nearly half (48 percent) leaned towards Paxton, while only 24 percent swung towards Cornyn.

This three-way split is further corroborated by public polling data from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, showing Paxton and Cornyn in a near tie, each holding about a third of the vote, and Hunt slightly behind at 22 percent.

However, Cornyn is not resting easy with just a plurality. Texas employs a primary runoff system, necessitating a majority for a clear win. If no candidate secures over 50 percent of the vote in the initial March 3 primary, a second round of voting would occur in late May 2026.

Cornyn's campaign has been bolstered recently by a significant television ad blitz, which has improved his standings in both public and private polls. A private poll earlier in May had shown him trailing Paxton by nearly 20 points in a direct matchup. However, subsequent polls indicate that Cornyn has significantly closed that gap.

Paxton, meanwhile, faces his own challenges. His job approval ratings among Republicans have dipped amid ongoing ethical controversies, including a failed impeachment attempt in 2023.

The poll by Deep Root Analytics, conducted from September 22 to September 28, surveyed 1,142 Texas Republicans likely to vote in the primary. It reflects a shifting landscape in Texas GOP politics, where Cornyn's strategic campaign efforts and Hunt's entry could potentially realign voter allegiances as the race progresses.