As the November 21 deadline approaches, the possibility of a government shutdown looms larger, exposing deep divisions among Republicans over how to proceed with funding the government. The House has already passed a short-term funding patch, but with its viability in question, the GOP remains split on the duration of the next continuing resolution (CR).

Some Republicans, particularly fiscal conservatives, are advocating for a CR that would extend until March or even the beginning of the next fiscal year. These discussions, revealed by three anonymous Republican sources, highlight the internal conflict about raising spending levels. On the other hand, Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) is vehemently against a long-term CR, arguing it could jeopardize the chances of securing fiscal 2026 funding promptly.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed a preference for proceeding with the appropriations process, though he noted that the lack of progress in discussions with Democrats might not leave many alternatives. The stalemate is evident, as Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a key figure in bipartisan negotiations, indicated that talks have reached an impasse.

In an effort to break the deadlock, Republicans are considering a strategy to entice Democrats by proposing a separate vote on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits. This move is seen as an attempt to mitigate the political fallout from the potential expiration of these subsidies, especially as the election year approaches. GOP leaders are in talks with White House officials about possible restrictions on these subsidies to make the extension more acceptable to conservative members.

One legislative strategy under consideration involves pairing a two-year extension of scaled-back ACA subsidies with a package of GOP-favored health care policies, including the promotion of tax-free Health Savings Accounts. This package could then be attached to a bundle of full-year spending bills. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a challenging task in rallying enough support among his members for any Obamacare extension.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) remains optimistic, signaling potential support if the package includes significant healthcare reforms that increase freedom and independence for patients and doctors.

Additional Developments to Watch:

President Donald Trump has scheduled a lunch with Senate Republicans in the Rose Garden Club this Tuesday to celebrate their unity in the current government standoff and the successful passage of nominees. Meanwhile, Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) anticipates easy passage of a new aircraft safety bill in response to a recent deadly crash near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. This bipartisan legislation aims to enhance oversight of flight routes and mandates military aircraft to be equipped with transponding technology.

As the clock ticks down to the November 21 deadline, all eyes are on Capitol Hill to see how or if lawmakers can avert a government shutdown.