December 2, 2025

House Republican leaders are on edge as they approach a critical special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, traditionally a stronghold for the party. Despite assurances from NRCC Chair Richard Hudson that Republican candidate Matt Van Epps is expected to secure a victory, there remains palpable anxiety within the party ranks about the outcome and its implications for the upcoming midterm elections.
During a closed-door meeting on Tuesday morning, Hudson attempted to bolster the confidence of House Republicans by predicting a win for Van Epps. However, he also cautioned that "special elections are special," acknowledging the unique and unpredictable nature of these races. This comment came against the backdrop of significant national intervention by the Republican Party to support Van Epps in what has unexpectedly become a competitive race.
The 7th district, a conservative bastion that President Donald Trump won by over 20 points, is witnessing a fiercely contested battle between Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn. The intense competition has drawn millions of dollars in outside spending from both parties, highlighting the national significance attached to this otherwise reliably red district.
Republicans present at Tuesday's meeting did not leave feeling reassured. One attendee described the atmosphere as lacking comfort, with members exchanging uneasy glances as they processed Hudson's remarks. The sentiment was echoed by another House Republican who expressed concern over the broader implications of a narrow victory margin, suggesting that anything less than a decisive win could destabilize the party's confidence heading into midterms.
“If our victory margin is in single digits, the conference may come unhinged,” remarked a senior House Republican, emphasizing the potential for internal turmoil. The stakes are perceived as so high that another member candidly predicted the party could "explode" if the election resulted in a loss.
As the hours tick down to the election results, all eyes are on Tennessee’s 7th district, with House Republicans bracing for an outcome that could either solidify their standing or send shockwaves through their ranks. The results of this special election could very well be a bellwether for the GOP’s fortunes and strategic direction as they prepare for the challenging electoral landscape of next year’s midterms.