Minnesota has long eluded Republican grasp in presidential elections, and the upcoming 2026 governor’s race is shaping up to be a critical test of whether the GOP can reclaim influence in this traditionally blue state. The presence of former President Donald Trump and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, however, might complicate these efforts.

Republican optimism is surging around the possibility of unseating the Democratic Governor, Tim Walz, who is eyeing an unprecedented third term. Yet, concerns are mounting that Trump’s harsh critiques of Walz and his divisive comments about Minnesota’s Somali community, coupled with Lindell’s potential gubernatorial bid, might alienate moderate voters.

Michael Brodkorb, a former Minnesota GOP deputy chair, expressed concerns about Trump’s impact, noting, “When the president comes in with a flamethrower...there's no space for the Republican to offer suggestions and to be thoughtful.”

Despite Trump’s close losses in the state in past presidential elections and the GOP’s failure to win statewide races, Republicans see an opportunity to leverage scrutiny of Walz’s administration, particularly regarding his handling of state benefits. This includes a federal inquiry into a massive fraud scheme involving a child nutrition program, which has cast shadows over Walz’s governance.

However, Trump’s focus on the Somali immigrant community and his endorsement of Lindell, known for promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, could deter crucial swing voters. Dustin Grage, a local Republican strategist, bluntly stated, “We’d be cooked,” if Lindell secures the nomination, highlighting the risks of aligning too closely with Trump’s polarizing rhetoric.

House GOP Whip Tom Emmer, a prominent Minnesota Republican, remains hopeful, asserting his belief that any Republican candidate could potentially unseat Walz. At a recent rally, Trump praised Lindell, saying he “deserves to be the governor of Minnesota,” signaling potential national interest in the race.

Walz, meanwhile, is contending with not only the fraud investigations but also the political spotlight after his vice-presidential run with Kamala Harris. His national profile may be a double-edged sword, offering both increased visibility and vulnerability.

The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party is already positioning Walz as a champion for working families, contrasting with what they describe as a GOP consumed by internal discord and loyalty to Trump.

With the state’s political landscape as backdrop, the 2026 governor’s race in Minnesota is poised to be a litmus test for the Republican Party’s ability to navigate Trump's shadow and appeal to a broader electorate. As the GOP strategizes, the ultimate choice of candidate could well decide their fortunes in this pivotal battleground.