As the clock ticks down to 2026, the U.S.-China relationship hangs in a precarious balance. A year after President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared a trade truce, tensions simmer beneath a fragile surface of diplomacy. Capitol Hill's corridors echo with bipartisan concerns, suggesting a turbulent year ahead in international politics.

The trade agreement's future looks uncertain as key commitments made by China—reducing the flow of fentanyl precursors and ramping up purchases of U.S. agricultural products—remain unfulfilled. “China can never be trusted. They’re always looking for an angle,” remarked Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), capturing the prevailing skepticism.

Despite a momentary pause in the trade war and mutual easing of export restrictions, more than 20 lawmakers are doubtful of China's intentions. The optimism seen after the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea is waning, with significant deals, including those on rare earths and the controversial TikTok sale, still unresolved.

Here are four potential breaking points that could redefine the future of U.S.-China relations in the coming year:

A Soybean Spoiler

China's unpredictable stance on soybean imports continues to threaten U.S. agriculture, a critical sector for many American states. Despite Xi's promises, Beijing's actual purchases fall short, jeopardizing the livelihoods of American farmers and putting additional pressure on President Trump, who values domestic economic stability.

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint. China's military advancements and aggressive posture towards Taiwan have escalated fears of an invasion, complicating U.S. foreign policy. Recent military developments and hostile actions against regional players like Japan signify Beijing's growing assertiveness, which could provoke a sharper U.S. response.

More Export Restrictions on the Way

Lawmakers worry that China could reinstate export restrictions on critical materials like rare earths and pharmaceutical ingredients, wielding them as leverage in trade negotiations. Such moves could cripple key industries in the U.S., pushing the strained relationship to a breaking point.

Growing Chinese Military Muscle

China’s rapid military expansion, highlighted by the launch of its third aircraft carrier, poses a direct challenge to U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific. This military buildup concerns U.S. policymakers, who fear it could lead to increased regional instability and force a reevaluation of U.S. defense strategies.

As these issues loom large, the trajectory of U.S.-China relations remains uncertain. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether both nations can navigate these turbulent waters or if they will succumb to the growing pressures that threaten to fracture their fragile truce.