February 11, 2026


U.S. National Debt Projected to Surge to $64 Trillion by 2033, Trump-Era Policies Cited as Major Factor

The United States is poised to face an unprecedented increase in national debt, with projections indicating it could reach a staggering $64 trillion over the next decade. This forecast was detailed in a recent marquee report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which attributes much of the surge to fiscal policies under former President Donald Trump and Republican congressional leadership.

The CBO's analysis points to the tax and spending measures enacted last summer, alongside Trump’s stringent immigration policies, as key drivers of the federal deficit expansion. These policies are expected to exacerbate the nation's fiscal challenges, effectively neutralizing the estimated $3 trillion in deficit reduction anticipated from Trump’s tariffs.

Currently, the national debt stands over $38 trillion, with the CBO estimating a $1.9 trillion deficit for this fiscal year alone. Looking ahead, the annual deficit is expected to balloon to $3.1 trillion by 2036. Factors such as rising interest costs and increased spending on safety-net programs are major contributors to the widening fiscal gap.

Moreover, the ratio of debt to the nation’s economic output is set to escalate dramatically. Predictions suggest that federal debt held by the public could jump from 101 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year to 120 percent in a decade, surpassing the historical peak of 106 percent recorded in 1946.

Despite these daunting figures, the CBO noted some potential short-term economic uplift from the Republican megabill signed into law by Trump in July, which aims to stimulate economic growth. However, the positive impact of this legislation may be tempered by the adverse economic effects stemming from increased tariffs and a tougher stance on immigration enforcement.

As policymakers grapple with these challenges, the trajectory of U.S. fiscal health remains uncertain, with critical decisions on tax and spending looming on the horizon that could either mitigate or exacerbate the forecasted debt crisis.