As the halls of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Grapevine, Texas, buzz with the energy of the MAGA faithful, a particular absence of endorsement by former President Donald Trump is being hailed as a victory. Supporters of the MAGA movement are interpreting Trump’s silence as a significant strategic move in the looming GOP Senate primary runoff in May.

The primary has seen a fierce contest between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a favorite among the MAGA crowd, and Texas Democratic State Representative James Talarico. Observers note a conspicuous lack of substantial campaign spending or aggressive polling by John Cornyn's camp, as well as by major Republican entities such as the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and One Nation. This has led many to believe that the Republican establishment is tacitly acknowledging the possibility of a Paxton win.

Steve Bannon, a prominent figure in the MAGA sphere, expressed his satisfaction to POLITICO, stating, “The grassroots stood in the breach and said a resounding ‘NO’ to Cornyn. This could be the victory that empowers MAGA through the midterms.”

Adding intrigue to the political drama, Paxton was seen engaging in what sources described as a positive conversation with Trump at Mar-a-Lago during a GOP dinner last Friday. Despite the high stakes, a spokesperson for Paxton declined to comment on the specifics of the meeting.

The ongoing reluctance to endorse Cornyn, particularly after his involvement with controversial gun legislation, has only fueled speculation about Trump’s ultimate intentions. Sources close to the White House suggest that Trump might delay any endorsement until after the Senate debates the SAVE Act, a move seen as attempting to secure a policy victory before throwing his political weight behind a candidate.

As the CPAC attendees gear up for Paxton’s keynote at the Ronald Reagan dinner, a non-appearance by Cornyn at the event signals his decreasing influence within the conservative base. Meanwhile, Trump's potential endorsement—or lack thereof—continues to loom large over the race, keeping political analysts and campaign strategists on edge.

Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser for Texans for a Conservative Majority, highlighted the resource dilemma facing the GOP, questioning whether it is worth investing heavily in a seat that should be secure. On the other hand, Joanna Rodriguez of the NRSC emphasized the importance of maintaining a Senate majority under Trump’s leadership, hinting at strategic calculations behind the scenes.

As the primary date draws near, the MAGA movement seems poised to assert its influence, potentially reshaping Texas politics and setting the stage for the midterms. Whether Trump’s eventual decision will sway the electorate remains a subject of intense speculation and debate.