Americans remain skeptical of President Donald Trump's handling of the economy, as new findings suggest that the ongoing war with Iran and persistent high costs of living continue to dampen the public’s financial outlook. Despite various indicators of a healthy economy, Trump's administration has struggled to convey a convincing message on affordability, according to recent data from The POLITICO Poll.

As of May, a staggering 53 percent of Americans believe the cost of living is at its worst in memory, a slight increase from 46 percent in November. Concurrently, the responsibility for the economic situation is largely attributed to Trump by 46 percent of the populace, with this perception remaining largely unchanged since last fall.

The Iran war has exacerbated the economic woes for many Americans. Over 60 percent, including majorities from both Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris’s camps from the 2024 elections, report that the conflict has heightened their expenses, particularly affecting prices for gas, food, and air travel. This sentiment is starkly contrasted by the administration's assurances that the situation is under control, with White House spokesperson Kush Desai stating that normalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz should soon alleviate these pressures.

Despite Trump voters being more likely than Harris voters to believe the president has adequately addressed the cost implications of the Iran conflict, they remain divided on his performance. Each half of his supporters either affirm or deny his effectiveness in managing the economic fallout.

The ongoing war not only overshadows the administration’s domestic economic efforts but also causes apprehension among Republicans about its potential impacts on the upcoming Senate and House races. GOP strategists suggest that an end to the conflict could pivot American perception towards a more favorable economic view. However, economic experts caution that gas prices are expected to remain high for several more months due to the global impacts of the war.

Adding to the gloomy economic narrative, recent government reports indicate a spike in inflation to its highest since Trump's re-election and a slower economic growth in the first quarter than anticipated. This news could further entrench the financial dissatisfaction among voters, nearly half of whom blame inflation for their affordability struggles.

Republican insiders express that resolving the war and reducing gas prices to pre-conflict levels might significantly improve public sentiment, especially in pivotal states and districts critical for the November races. This scenario underscores a crucial strategy for Trump’s party as they navigate through the compounded challenges of global conflict and domestic economic discontent.