ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, England — As the UK braces for a by-election that could pivotally shape the nation's political future, the mood among voters in Makerfield is a cocktail of frustration and cynicism. This sentiment was palpably clear during a focus group session organized by Public First for POLITICO in the Golden Lion pub, located in a former mining community in northwest England.

The discussion unveiled that many see the Labour candidate, Andy Burnham, as a potential change agent. However, the dominant atmosphere was one of deep skepticism about the fairness and direction of life in 2026, with participants expressing profound concerns over rising living costs, immigration, and public safety.

Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, noted the group's disillusionment. "These were not a group of people that were thrilled about anything that was going on in Westminster," he said.

The key takeaways from the session were stark. Not one of the nine attendees praised the current government under Labour's Keir Starmer, despite Labour having held the constituency for decades. Participants like Tom, a father planning to vote for Nigel Farage's right-leaning Reform UK party, voiced a common sentiment: "How are they for the working class anymore?"

Daily expenses, from fast food to rent and leisure activities, have surged, pushing even full-time workers like Paul, who juggles three jobs, to their limits. "No one should work 60 hours a week and not be able to have a nice life," he lamented.

On the political front, few believed that any leader from the past decade had positively impacted their lives. The exception was some nostalgia for Tony Blair's era, but the present political landscape offered them little hope.

Immigration was another critical issue. Many in the group believe that the influx of migrants has led to higher rents and altered the community dynamic, which Reform UK has promised to address.

Crime and local safety were also pressing concerns, with recent incidents like a knife attack in Belfast capturing attention and heightening fears about local disorder.

Despite such challenges, Burnham's local roots and record as Mayor of Greater Manchester earned him some support. Participants acknowledged his efforts in improving transport and police presence, with several planning to vote for him due to his perceived empathy and effectiveness.

As the by-election approaches, Makerfield stands at a crossroads, with its voters poised to make a decision that might not only shape their locality but also send significant ripples through the corridors of power in Westminster. Whether this will translate into a shift towards Reform UK or a reaffirmation of Labour's hold, driven by local loyalty to Burnham, remains a pivotal question.